By Alec Davison
Please note: The original version of this report was written before the latest escalation between Israel and Iran in June 2025 and before the U.S. strike on Iran. However, given the conflict and fragility of any ceasefire, there is continued uncertainty surrounding the cessation of hostilities. Should Iran feel pressed, it could resort to asymmetrical means, such as using non-state actors in targeted attacks, to retaliate against the U.S. and other Western countries. This option allows them to maintain plausible deniability, while still undermining Western societal resilience, and at the same time, reduces the risk of inviting further military action against the Iranian regime. Given this current threat environment, we are releasing this TARGET as TLP:CLEAR. The complete TARGET can be accessed and downloaded below. For future TARGET reports, our daily Situational Update Notification, and lots more, join Gate 15’s Resilience and Intelligence Portal (GRIP)! Stay informed of what’s new in all-hazards homeland security by joining the Gate 15’s Resilience and Intelligence Portal (GRIP). Join the GRIP! and join us in securing America’s people, places, data, and dollars. To join the GRIP, click the link above or here, scroll down and select the “Join the Grip!” button, or email our team at Gate15@Gate15.global. The downloadable PDF below was updated on 30 June 2025 to correct minor typos.
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